Why Ignoring The News Is A Good Trading Strategy | Cashflow Hacking Ep #11 David Moadel
David Moadel, the chief researcher for bonds and gold at Portfolio Wealth Global, and founder of Looking At The Markets, joins us on the podcast to discuss the future outlook of bitcoin, and other cryptocurrencies on the market. As an avid investor in Bitcoin, David is intimately familiar with the historical ups and downs of the cryptocurrency market, and shares his outlook for the future of the cryptocurrency to help you make a profitable investment decision with your own Bitcoin investments.
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This is the Finance and Markets Cashflow Hacking Podcast, streaming to you live. Teaching the methods behind unlocking long-term wealth. Your host Casey Stubbs.
Casey Stubbs: 00:34
This is Casey Stubbs with the Cashflow Hacking Podcast from Finance and Markets and today we’re with David Moadel, who is the chief researcher for bonds and Gold at portfoliowealthglobal.com and he also has a youtube channel called Looking at the Markets. Hi David! Thanks for being here today.
David Moadel: 00:47
Casey it’s an honor and a privilege to be on your podcast today. Uh, I’m looking forward to talking to you.
Casey Stubbs: 00:52
Excellent. So before we get into the deep discussion that we’re going to have, can you give us a little bit about background about yourself and how you got invested interested in the trading, trading the markets?
David Moadel: 01:05
Sure. Thank you for asking, Casey. I am a former elementary school teacher. I used to teach fifth grade. Yeah, little kids. Have also taught at the high school level and at the college level. I have a master’s degree in education and I have also been trading and investing for a long time. And uh, I started a youtube channel called Looking at the Markets. People can look it up or just go to youtube, type in my name, David Moadel, m o a d e l and I have over 300 free videos to watch on trading, investing precious metals, stocks, bonds, crypto currencies, all kinds of things, technical indicators, personal finance. It’s all there. And if people want to contact me, uh, I can help. I’ve helped many people and will continue to help people set up a personal financial trading and investing plans. They can contact me. My email address is [email protected] Also, I recently joined the team on, at a portfoliowealthglobal.com and we provide free research reports as well as a newsletter. So yeah, I am proud to be with your podcast today. This is great.
Casey Stubbs: 02:26
So asking about, you’re looking at the markets, a youtube channel, what is the hottest thing that you’re, you’ve been talking about in happening right now in the market?
David Moadel: 02:38
It’s gotta be the Crypto, the crypto currency. Although I did notice, and I’m sure you noticed this as well, as somebody who follows the market and who is a content creator as I am, that, uh, ever since bitcoin dropped from nearly $20,000 to below $7,000 that some of the interest has leveled off in bitcoin since the most recent crash has, has begun. Have you seen that yourself?
Casey Stubbs: 03:06
I think that, uh, I think the reason is because everybody lost so much money that they just pretend that it doesn’t exist anymore. They just want to prove just they just want it to go away. Glad to know that we’re buying at 18,000, you know, those guys.
David Moadel: 03:23
Yeah. Yeah. Well, I’ll tell you what though, if for somebody who just started investing in bitcoin and other crypto currencies, because the other cryptos they tend to follow bitcoin when it comes to price action and direction. So for people who invested in crypto currencies when Bitcoin was at nearly 20,000, um, and then saw there, the value of it go down to 7,000 or below. Yeah, it’s pretty scary. Uh, this bear market has been quite challenging and I’m sure some retail traders and investors have been shaken out as they say, but I’ve been following bitcoin since 2009 and this is the twelfth crash of 30 percent or greater in bitcoin. That means there had been 11 previous crashes of 30 percent or greater in bitcoin and it regained. Yeah, it came all the way back up 11 times out of 11. This is time number, this is crash number 12. Is there any guarantee that it’ll come back up? No. But since we’ve survived, those of us who’ve been there since the beginning, since we’ve survived 11 crashes in the past, I think there’s a great chance that we’ll get back to all time highs at some point. Is it going to happen tomorrow or next week? No. it, things don’t recover when we want them to, but having a long-term perspective can keep us sane and calm and can help us to just hold on through these very difficult bear markets. Just like we saw bear market in gold and other precious metals from 2011 to 2016. Now we’re seeing it in crypto currencies and uh, if we could just stay the course as they say, then I think we’ll be just fine in time,
Casey Stubbs: 05:11
I think. I think that is pretty good advice. However, if you’re underwater pretty heavy, it can be tough. Um, but that’s also a good learning lesson. I don’t want anyone to get burned, but you also know that you shouldn’t go in with everything you’ve got at the top of the market anyways. Not that anyone knew what the top was, but, um, it’s probably better to test test things out, going a little slow and slowly built out. I mean, that’s, it’s slower growth that way, but it’s also more protection.
David Moadel: 05:45
Yep. I totally agree. And I’m bullish on crypto currencies anyway. Uh, yeah, you’re right. Don’t put everything. Don’t mortgage the house and put it into bitcoin. That’s not how you do it. How you deal with is you diversify your portfolio and some of it can be in crypto currencies, but realize that crypto currencies are volatile. They’re big movers. Uh, you know, these are not, this is not Coca Cola stock or Mcdonald’s stock or something that.. It’s a, it’s a big mover, so you can make it part of your speculative portion of your portfolio, let’s say, or if you’re just gonna buy and hold, you know, it’s OK to put let’s say five or 10 percent of your portfolio into crypto currencies. As long as you’re aware that, uh, you could, you could lose it. It is possible. Um, but, uh, yeah, I’m, I’m bullish on crypto currencies in general because I’m bullish on the Blockchain. I believe in the technology which is here. I think it’s here to stay. Also, I believe that crypto currencies will receive a boost when certain things happen. First one, Wall Street starts to divert a client’s money into crypto currencies. I think a bitcoin and other crypto is we’ll get a boost then when central banks start to, uh, buy crypto currencies for their reserves, their own reserves, I think that’ll be a boost to crypto currencies. Um, and also when the technology allows the different Blockchains, the Blockchain have a theory in the Blockchain of Bitcoin, the Blockchain pf Whitecoin to all talk to each other, so to speak, to communicate with each other. Uh, that’ll also be a huge boost to, uh, to the price of bitcoin and cryptocurrencies in general.
Casey Stubbs: 07:25
So we should be looking for, we should be probably just following some news headlines, seeing what’s happening with bitcoin those are maybe some key drivers that we could be looking at to see when a good time to get in would be.
David Moadel: 07:39
Yeah, I believe so. We have to be careful with watching headlines. We don’t want to trade every single headline that comes in. Uh, for example, uh, you know, there’s a trade war possibly going on in progress right now. And uh, if, if we follow every tweet, if we try to trade everything that’s using, Ping, says everything that the president of the United States says, we could get chopped up by the market. So I’m not saying trade, try to trade, and try to anticipate every single headline or react to it. We don’t want to be reactive as investors. We do want to look at the fundamentals, look at, do we believe in what we’re investing in, do we believe in the technology behind it? Uh, if, if you believe in Blockchain Technology, if you’ve really researched it, then you can go in with confidence knowing what to invest in and how. And again, if people want some more help with knowing how to invest, uh, you know, I’m not a licensed or registered investment advisor. I cannot tell people what to do. People need to everybody out there listening to this needs to do their own due diligence, do their own research, make their own decisions. But I do help people put together trading and investing plans so they can at least have a foundation. And again, they can email me at [email protected] and there are also free research reports on all these topics at portfoliowealthglobal.com.
Casey Stubbs: 09:02
And uh, all of this is for educational informational purposes only. Do not do anything. This is not investment advice. That’s how it goes.
David Moadel: 09:02
Well said. Yes.
Casey Stubbs: 09:16
Yeah, well I wouldn’t say that it was well said but,
David Moadel: 09:16
But it was said..
Casey Stubbs: 09:24
Yes, so, you know being bullish on Crypto and on Bitcoin is pretty, pretty good. But the thing that kind of blows my mind, which I don’t quite understand is how the thing can be more $20,000. That’s a lot of money. So like if you’re bullish and you think we’re gonna hit new highs, like how high can this thing go?
David Moadel: 09:44
Yeah and, and calling tops just like calling bottoms is pretty much a, it’s not a winning game. All right? Uh, but again, if we believe in the technology, then we can believe that it’ll hit all time highs again as it did 11 times before. It regained everything after 30 percent or greater crash. This is time number 12. There are no guarantees in any of the financial markets. Could it stay down at the level it’s at now? A forever and never get back up? Sure. It’s possible. But there are a number of things we haven’t seen yet. The three factors that I mentioned already haven’t happened yet, and if they do, then that’s gonna be a big boost. And there are other things like when a bitcoin gets into the popular vernacular, I see millennials, uh, you know, 20 somethings, they’re pretty conversant with the crypto currencies, they know what bitcoin is and many of them either own it or at least they’re aware of it. Uh, but when people my age finally start to catch on, when you go on Amazon or you go to Walmart or Target and it becomes not only acceptable but normal to pay with crypto currencies. Um, I, I believe that will happen. And when it does, then, you know, you want to have already gotten into it. The time to get into these things is not when mass acceptance has already occurred. You got to get in before, you know, buy low, sell high. Uh, so in a number of other things I think will factor into it, well like large companies, uh, Bank of America, IBM, uh, the NASDAQ, Paypal, J P Morgan, the writing blockchain patents (Facebook and Google). And these blockchain patents, there’s a lot of buy in among, uh, among these large companies, these large institutions that says something. When Bill Gates has something good to say, you know, says good things about Ripple. Um, so things like that, when banks have been, you know, seeing that Ripple could be the way of the future. Um, and when, again, when people accepted as normal to pay with Bitcoin, when you start seeing ATMs everywhere, uh, that you know, that accept Bitcoin and payout Bitcoin and other, uh, other of the top 10 popular crypto currencies. Again, by then it’ll probably be too late to make a 10 bagger or a 100 bagger Bitcoin. And so the idea is to get in when not so many people are talking about it. Uh, but again, you don’t put your whole portfolio into this. This is something you put in a small portion and you just wait it out and uh, and you have to believe in it like I do otherwise, don’t do it.
Casey Stubbs: 12:31
Right. Yeah, I agree. And I’ve been putting some money into Bitcoin, ah kind of like a, a, a monthly thing. You know, like, OK, I put a little bit here, a little bit there, a little bit here, just slowly going up and I’m seeing my value go down, but that’s OK because every time I put another investment in, I get more so like this last one I did, I was able to buy more quantity and so that makes me happy. It’s like, OK, this is, I’m getting a deal. I look at it as I’m getting a deal here. And so for me that’s something that’s not a bad thing as long as I am looking long-term and if it keeps going down, I’ll still buy more.
David Moadel: 13:10
That’s dollar cost averaging and it’s, it’s one way to approach it. Absolutely. Uh, for people who are income earners, people who have a pay track where they can allocate, I don’t know 10 percent of their paycheck to these types of investments. Just put it in, hold your nose if it’s going down, close your eyes if you have to. Well, don’t close your eyes. Be aware of what’s going on.
Casey Stubbs: 13:10
Right, yeah. Don’t be crazy.
David Moadel: 13:35
Yeah, yeah, yeah. But, uh, putting in a fixed amount every month, let’s say, that is okay to do that. There’s nothing wrong with that. I think that could actually be better than putting it all in at once, uh, because with dollar cost averaging, you don’t have to time it. You just put in a regular amount and just sit on it and you’re hoping that in 10 years from now you’ll, you’ll do well and I believe you, I believe you will. I believe people who have that approach well, over time.
Casey Stubbs: 14:06
Now, I want to flip gears here a little bit off of Bitcoin, but stay in investing and in the markets, uh, you had mentioned that there was a trade war going on. Is that all hype and is it all like a big news story just for people to poke promote news or is this gonna really impact the markets? Is this gonna destroy our economy? I mean, what do you think about that?
David Moadel: 14:30
That’s a great question. Thank you for asking it. Yeah, well look, there’s been a trade war going on for a long time, so Xi Jinping, and from you know China’s leader and the United States, um, you know, before Trump. But you know with the regime we have now in place. There’s been a war against the dollars hegemony for quite awhile now, and I don’t believe that the dollar will be the world’s reserve currency for too much longer. It has been for a long time, but, uh, I’ll give an example, um, recently in March, uh, in China, I’m sure, I’m sure you’re aware of this and many of your listeners are aware of this. In China futures trading on the Petro-Yuan. Meaning, that, usually oil is purchased or traded, uh, through, uh, through the dollar, uh, either on the WTI (West Texas Intermediate) which is traded in New York or brand futures are traded in London a bit lately, recently, China opened up a trading for oil futures, um, both domestically and internationally. And this was a salvo in the ongoing trade war in which China and Xi Jinping would love to see the Peto-Yuan replaced the Petro Dollar as the primary currency in which oil futures are traded. Um, this actually happened on March 20th, so it wasn’t that long ago. Does that mean that the Yuan immediately is replacing the dollar as the way people do business in the oil futures markets and otherwise? No. But it is another round of fire, shots fired, so to speak, in the attack. Uh, now whether the dollar will be replaced by the one or a could be crypto currencies. It could be the euro, we don’t know a, but anybody who looks at how the dollar has performed since Richard Nixon took us off the gold standard in 1971.
David Moadel: 16:42
Go ahead and look at a chart and the chart of the dollar against pretty much any other currency currency. And we can see it’s just been steadily down and down and down. Uh, so we have to find other ways to invest other ways to put our money to use. Because just rolling up your dollars into a mattress and leaving it there thinking that that’s the safest way to go, no. Inflation will eat away at the value of your dollars over time and when, if and when, and I believe it will, the dollar loses its hegemony. It’s status as the way that people do business in the world. Um, the dollar will become worth even less and less. And so, you know, I’m glad at portfoliowealthglobal.com that we have the free reports that people can sign up for. And I’m glad to coach people personally. Again, my email is [email protected] If people want more information on that.
Casey Stubbs: 17:42 Now you mentioned, um, about us going off the gold standard and I was watching one of your videos the other day and you were saying that there’s a bill being drafted where they’re looking at adding us back to the gold standard. Do you think that’s just, um, kind of a joke and that there’s no way that a bill like that would ever get past?
David Moadel: 18:01
Yeah, that’s HR5404. It’s a bill and it’s been introduced by Congress and it is nowhere near being enacted right now. It has not passed either Chamber of Congress. It has not passed the House of Senate. It has not reached the president’s desk. It’s just been introduced and many bills die in the senator, in the house or the president just chooses not to sign it. But Hey, there’s help. At least Congress is taking the ideas seriously that perhaps we should put the dollar, the US dollar back on the gold standard. So at least it’s backed by something. Right now, it’s just, since 1971 is just been Fiat currency and Fiat means it has value just because the government says so. Again, look at the chart of the dollar since 1971, we’ve seen how that experiment is turned, turned out not to well, inflation has been devastating to savers, investors, retirees, people who are..Even people who are not saving, people who just have money that they need to buy things, which with the purchasing power has been devastated. Uh, so people cannot afford not to invest in something. So yeah, cash is not king, king dollar not too much longer. Um, HR5404. Will it pass, I mean, who knows, it’s, it’s so foreign to the beginning just still in the beginning stages. Um, but you know..
Casey Stubbs: 19:40
There’s a lot of um, public support behind it or do you think that it’s, there’s not too many people that even care about about things like that?
David Moadel: 19:48 I mean, we’re talking about here, you’re doing the good deed of putting out the word that this exists. I made a video, it got a lot of views, but you know, we’re, we’re small players in this big system and most people are not even aware of what most people probably are not aware of most bills that get introduced. But unfortunately I had to say it, but it’s just true. And that’s why self education is so important. I encourage people to check out on all the major bills that could become law and that could affect you and me, so yeah..
Casey Stubbs: 20:18
The thing about the bills is I really hate reading them because when you look at it, there’s one headline feature, right? Like get on the gold standard and then they have all this compromise to go back and forth in order to get it to pass that they slide all these other things underneath. And then next thing you know, uh, there’s a line in the fine print that says every American is gonna be a slave to each congressmen and you know, we don’t even know that it’s in there and it’s just, it’s just crazy. I mean, it really doesn’t, the stuff to get passed on this bill is just so bad.
David Moadel: 20:55
Yeah. Yeah. I don’t know if it’s purposeful or not, but they make it difficult to follow. Um, they, they make it difficult to access. Yes, you can access it on the Internet, but they don’t advertise that fact. All the bills that are going through. It’s almost like they want to push them through secretly. I imagine that the government wanting to do that,
Casey Stubbs: 21:16
The funny part about them is they usually have. Their names are usually the exact opposite of what they do. Like, you know, we’ll say freedom act is usually just taking away freedom. It’s kind of interesting how they, how they play that out.
David Moadel: 21:28
They’re very good at naming these bills. Uh, yeah, to, to get them to pass or just to spin it the way they want to spin it. So again, self educating is everything and watching my channel, Looking at the Markets with David Moadel, listening to your podcast, Casey’s Podcast, brings out the best of personal finance as well as what’s going on, uh, in, in the world today. And so people need to check out all of Casey’s episodes, go back to the archive, check them all out. Educate yourself. That’s what I believe.
Casey Stubbs: 21:59
Yeah, self education is the key. That really is. You can’t just take your word for it, you got to actually do your research or else you’re gonna be lost. So hidden back on the trade war. Do you think that, uh, these new policies, is gonna hurt our economy and is it gonna drop the stock market or is this just a buying opportunity?
David Moadel: 22:17
Yeah, I mean, well, if you want to talk about the impact on the stock market, the market just tends to follow every tweet lately. Uh, you know, Putin says this, Trump says this is, Xi Jinping says this, whatever the, the various shots fired back and forth, or if somebody says something or does something conciliatory than the market rallies, it’s interesting looking at anybody. Anybody wants to look at a chart of the S and P 500 throughout 2016 and 17 it was just calm, gentle, upward gliding with hardly any volatility of the VIX was below nine a number of times. So just absolute complacency in the markets. And then starting in February, it looks like a cardiac arrest that just chopping all over the place, reacting to every single tweet and everything that, that world leaders say, that’s, that’s no way to trade or invest. Um, don’t, don’t try to trade every single headline, don’t try to react, don’t be reactive, be proactive.
David Moadel: 23:23
So are these things affecting the markets? well, yeah! you’ve got the cardiac arrest and the charts there. But on the other hand, is there anything we can do about that? Well, maybe it might be a day trader’s paradise for people who can fade every move or try to predict every move. But if you’re buying and holding or if your swing trading it, if you’d like to hold for months, weeks and months. Yeah. There’s not much you can do to try to predict every single tweet that’s going to happen every move by world leaders instead have a plan, stick to it. Know what you’re gonna do in any given scenario, whether it’s through stop-losses or, or you just dollar, dollar cost averaging, no matter what happens, whatever your plan is, have one. Because if you fail to plan, then you’re planning to fail. And that’s why I enjoy helping people. Um, you know, both personally through, through skype and phone coaching as well as through portfoliowealthglobal.com and through my videos. I like to help people plan ahead of time so they don’t have to try to guess every next move in the markets.
Casey Stubbs: 24:27
Yeah. And right now it seems like the, the corporate data as far as profits and earnings, it seems like those were pretty healthy right now. So, I mean that’s. The stocks are usually, I feel like it’s the corporate earnings is what drives the stock market. And so since those are good, I think that we should see a bounce.
David Moadel: 24:49
Yeah, it wouldn’t surprise me. And again, it’s the, these shots fired back and forth in terms of the trade war, uh, you know, those are short term influencers of the markets. But yeah, uh, corporate earnings, really our tell when it comes to how the economy is doing and how the market probably will perform over time. Um, you know, and I’m not a top collar, I do believe stocks will continue to trade and arrange for now probably will gather up some steam. Uh, I imagine will rally and let’s say six to seven weeks. I don’t want to be too specific about it but it’s a contrarian view but, yeah, I don’t think enough investors have been sucked into the markets yet. I think the market is gonna have another head fake upwards, before things really start to correct because we’ve had an insane bull market and equities, uh, since 2009. If you look at the long-term S&P 500 chart, it’s just been, yes, there’s been a little bit of volatility here and there. There was a 20 percent correction, but that was back in 2011. How many years ago now was that? and that’s nothing, 20% is nothing so… and it came right back up in a few months. So I think we’re really due for something to happen. Some, some big change and it’s gonna be unfortunate for people who get shaken out when things get rough, cause the people who haven’t been a trader who did not trade or invest through 2008, they don’t know what a real draw down is unfortunately. Um, so actually we have, we have a free report. It’s over at portfoliowealthglobal.com/crash. That’s portfoliowealthglobal.com/crash. Um, and it has more information and more research on that. It’s an exclusive report and it’s free if people want to download that, I certainly encourage that.
Casey Stubbs: 26:47
All right, well David, uh, that’s about it for today, but thanks for coming on the show. And uh, you had some great insight on crypto and in the markets and the dollar valuation. Gold standard you had some very good, good info that you share with the listeners. So thank you.
David Moadel: 27:10
Thank you and go HR5404 hope, hope we see that pass. And once again, everybody should check out all the archives on, on this podcast who are listening to right now. Great resource. Thank you so much. I am glad to be here and we’ll come back gladly. Anytime.
Casey Stubbs: 27:24
All right. Thank you.
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